Crime Spree

I recently heard Ethan Orr (Executive Director For Linkages, here in Tucson) point out the following:
Statistically, most crime is committed by a certain demographic, the 16-24 year old male group.

Local Law Enforcement officials have touted a drop in crime over the past few years. This drop in crime also happens to coincide with a drop in males age 16-24 in our community.

In the next several years, there will be a spike in males age 16-24. Will crime spike as well?

Our Sheriff has pointed out how much lower the crime rate is in the unincorporated areas of the County than it is in the City. While I appreciate the efforts of all the Deputies, I wonder if the demographics reflect a lower rate of males age 16-24 in the County than in the City limits.